基于网格划分及信息扩散的化工园区安全风险评价技术  

Safety risk assessment of chemical industry park based on grid partition and information diffusion

作　　者：王洪德[1] 郑玉钱[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学土木与安全工程学院,大连116028

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2010年第7期1286-1292,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅高等学校科研项目计划(2009A111);国家自然科学基金(50674052).

摘　　要：通过对国内外区域风险评价研究现状以及存在问题的分析,提出针对多危险源的化工园区安全风险评价方法.首先,基于网格划分方法将评价区域划分为等步长的二维正方形网格;然后,依据大连市火灾爆炸事故统计数据,运用信息扩散技术计算园区火灾爆炸事故发生概率,同时采用沸腾液体扩展蒸汽爆炸模型(BLEVE)对事故后果严重程度进行分析,并将死亡区、重伤区和轻伤区的伤害范围转化为个体死亡概率;其次,基于风险叠加原则计算每个网格中心的个人安全风险值.进而采用余补累积分布函数计算社会安全风险;最后,通过内插函数得到该区域的个人安全风险和社会安全风险分布图,并进行实例验证.With the analysis to the current situation and problems of regional risk assessment at home and abroad, the method of regional risk assessment for multi-danger source was put forward. Firstly, the assessed region was carved up into series of two-dimensional square grids in equal stride length mesh based on grid partition method. Secondly, according to the statistic data of Dalian, the probabilities of fire and explosion in chemical industry park were calculated based on the information diffusion method, at the same time, the severity degrees of the accident results were analyzed based on the model of boiling liquid expanding-vapor explosion （BLEVE）, and then the harmful ranges of the death, the severe injured and the mild injury were transformed into the probability of individual death. Thirdly, the individual safety risk values in center of the grids were calculated according to the superposition principle of risk, so the social safety risks were assessed founded on the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function （CCDF）. Finally, the distribution maps of the individual safety risk and social safety risk were drawn according to the interpolation functions. It is shown that the method is scientific and effective.

关 键 词：化学工业园区 安全风险评价 信息扩散 个人安全风险 社会安全风险 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]