云南省新平县滑坡预警区划研究  

Early-warning zoning studying of landslides in Xinping

作　　者：温铭生[1,2] 王连俊[1] 李铁锋[2] 徐为[2] 陈红旗[2] 吴菲[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081 [3]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明650000

出　　处：《水文地质工程地质》2010年第4期103-106,110,共5页Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAC04B01)

摘　　要：以新平县为研究区,采用确定性系数(CF)方法分析滑坡与地质环境因子各区段(类型)之间的敏感性关系,得出各因子不同区段(类型)的敏感性大小,并运用Logistic回归分析方法建立预警区划模型,认为坡度、岩组、年均降雨量、高程、构造等五个因子是影响研究区滑坡发生的敏感性因子,建立Logistic概率预测模型,并对研究区进行五级预警区划,区划结果对该区预警工作有积极的指导意义。The Xinping county was chosen as a research area.The relationships between landslides and sections（types） of geo-environment factors were analyzed with CF in this paper,The sensitivity factors were filtrated by logistic regression model.The result tell us that gradient,lithology（fabric）,mean annual precipitation,ground elevation and geological structure are sensitivity factors of landslide hazards in Xinping county.The logistic early warning model and five grades zoning figure was constituted.The zoning result is significant in early warning.

关 键 词：滑坡 确定性系数 LOGISTIC回归 敏感性因子 预警区划 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]