我国天然气市场价值评估  

Market valuation of natural gas in China

作　　者：洪波[1] 赵连增[1] 郝郁 

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院 [2]中国石油集团东南亚管道公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2010年第6期11-19,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：天然气市场价值是天然气用户使用天然气来满足某种功能需求而可以接受的最高价格。应用天然气市场价值评估理论和方法,按照当前能源价格以及相关技术经济参数,测算出分类用户的天然气市场价值,可充分了解天然气与其他能源在终端市场的竞争力。天然气价值评估方法包括替代成本法、资产定价法和支出限额法。采用不同的评估方法得出的评估结果表明,在城市燃气领域,天然气在居民生活、商业以及CNG汽车等领域较其他能源有一定的价格优势。在工业燃料领域,天然气作为特殊工艺用燃料的优势明显。在发电领域,调峰发电的天然气市场价值较低,在2.2元/立方米左右,发展天然气发电需要相关的政策扶持。在化工用气领域,制氢的天然气市场价值较高,在4.0元/立方米以上,但尿素和甲醇的天然气市场价值只有1.5元/立方米左右,应在《天然气利用政策》的指导下,考虑不同天然气化工项目的经济效益,适度发展。The market value of natural gas is the highest price acceptable to natural gas users to meet a specific functional demand. Estimating the market value of natural gas to classified users with valuation theories and methods using current energy price and relevant technical and economic parameters can help in gaining a comprehensive understanding of the competitiveness of natural gas and other energies in the end-use market. Different bases for valuation of natural gas include alternative cost, asset pricing, and expenditure limitation. Results based on different valuation methods indicate natural gas is somewhat competitive, in sectors such as residential, commercial and CNG vehicles in urban areas, compared to other energies. In the industrial fuel sector natural gas has an obvious advantage as a fuel for special processing. In the power generation sector the market value of natural gas for peak adjustment power generation is relatively low at around 2.2 RMB/m3; so policy support is needed for development of power generation with natural gas. In the chemical sector the above 4.0 RMB/m3 market value of natural gas for hydrogen production is relatively high, compared to urea and methanol where it is only around 1.5 RMB/m3. The economic benefit of different natural gas chemical projects shall be considered in accordance with the Natural Gas Utilization Policy in the interest of proper development.

关 键 词：天然气 市场价值 评估方法 替代能源 城市燃气 工业燃料 调峰发电 化工项目 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]