The“Spring Predictability Barrier” Phenomenon of ENSO Predictions Generated with the FGOALS-g Model  

作　　者：WEI Chao DUAN Wan-Suo 

机构地区：[1]LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2010年第2期87-92,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：sponsored by the Knowledge Innovation Programof the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-QN203);the National Basic Research Program of China (GrantNos. 2010CB950400 and 2007CB411800)

摘　　要：Using the sea surface temperature （SST） predicted for the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil （FGOALS-g）, an analysis of the prediction errors was performed for the seasonally dependent predictability of SST anomalies both for neutral years and for the growth/decay phase of El Nino/La Nina events. The study results indicated that for the SST predictions relating to the growth phase and the decay phase of El Nino events, the prediction errors have a seasonally dependent evolution. The largest increase in errors occurred in the spring season, which indicates that a prominent spring predictability barrier （SPB） occurs during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） warming episode. Furthermore, the SPB associated with the growth-phase prediction is more prominent than that associated with the decay-phase prediction. However, for the neutral years and for the growth and decay phases of La Nifia events, the SPB phenomenon was less prominent. These results indicate that the SPB phenomenon depends extensively on the ENSO events themselves. In particular, the SPB depends on the phases of the ENSO events. These results may provide useful knowledge for improving ENSO forecasting.Using the sea surface temperature (SST) predicted for the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g),an analysis of the prediction errors was performed for the seasonally dependent predictability of SST anomalies both for neutral years and for the growth/decay phase of El Ni o/La Ni a events.The study results indicated that for the SST predictions relating to the growth phase and the decay phase of El Ni o events,the prediction errors have a seasonally dependent evolution.The largest increase in errors occurred in the spring season,which indicates that a prominent spring predictability barrier (SPB) occurs during an El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warming episode.Furthermore,the SPB associated with the growth-phase prediction is more prominent than that associated with the decay-phase prediction.However,for the neutral years and for the growth and decay phases of La Ni a events,the SPB phenomenon was less prominent.These results indicate that the SPB phenomenon depends extensively on the ENSO events themselves.In particular,the SPB depends on the phases of the ENSO events.These results may provide useful knowledge for improving ENSO forecasting.

关 键 词：ENSO event spring predictability barrier prediction error PREDICTABILITY 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TP316.2[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]