A Potential High-Score Scheme for the Prediction of Atlantic Storm Activity  

作　　者：WANG Hui-Jun QIAN Zhuo-Lei 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2010年第2期116-119,共4页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421406);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005 and 40875048)

摘　　要：A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number （ATSN） was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January-February and April-May. The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting （ECMWF） were applied. The model was cross-validated using data from 1979-2002. The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients （ACC） of 0.79 （NCEP/NCAR） and 0.78 （ECMWF） and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors （MAE） of 1.85 and 1.76, respectively. When the predictions of the two models were averaged, the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18, an exceptionally high score. Therefore, this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.

关 键 词：tropical storm empirical prediction seasonal prediction 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X820.9[环境科学与工程—环境工程]