基于CLIMEX的橘实锤腹实蝇在中国的适生性分析  

The potential geographical distribution of the Monacrostichus citricola Bezzi based on the CLIMEX,in China

作　　者：倪文龙[1] 陈洪俊[2] 曲伟伟[1] 万方浩[3] 阿梅[4] 普仓 李志红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院昆虫系,北京100193 [2]中国检验检疫科学研究院 [3]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所 [4]西藏自治区农业技术推广服务中心 [5]西藏自治区日喀则地区农业技术推广服务中心

出　　处：《植物检疫》2010年第4期20-25,共6页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：973项目(2009CB119200);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD08A15)资助

摘　　要：橘实锤腹实蝇(Monacrostichus citricola Bezzi)隶属双翅目实蝇科寡鬃实蝇亚科,分布于马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国,是我国植物检疫性有害生物之一,危害柑橘类植物。本研究综合运用CLIMEX3.0软件与ArcGIS9.3软件对橘实锤腹实蝇在我国目前以及未来的潜在地理分布进行了研究。结果显示:目前气候条件下,橘实锤腹实蝇在我国的适生区主要分布在16.544°N～32.422°N之间;其中,高度适生区分布在16.5°N～28°N之间,占全国面积的7.53%,分布于海南、广东和广西南部的大部分地区、云南东南部以及四川盆地等地区;非适生区则占70.90%,主要分布于黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河北、北京、天津、河南、山东、山西、内蒙、宁夏、青海、甘肃、新疆、西藏等省(自治区)。基于中国未来气候的预测结果显示,2020年,适生范围北界向北移至33.408°N,高度适生区范围北界向北移至32.867°N,高度适生范围占9.76%;2050年,适生范围较2020年相比没有变化,但高度适生区北界移至33.068°N,非适生区面积降至65.74%,高度适生区达到10.76%;而至2100年,适生范围南北界均向北移动,变为18.25°N～37.925°N之间,高度适生区则因为气候的进一步变化下降至5.68%,高度适生区开始因为该实蝇对环境进一步变化的不适应逐渐较少。鉴于橘实锤腹实蝇在我国的适生性研究结果,建议采取相应有效的防控策略,加强橘实锤腹实蝇检疫措施,完善监测体系,严防该虫的入侵和扩散。Monacrostichus citricola belongs to Dacinae,Tephritidae,Diptera. This species distribute in Malaysia,Philippines and Thailand,which is one of the quarantine pests in our country,which could damage citrus crops. The current and future potential geographic distribution of Monacrostichus citricola was studied in this paper by using CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3,The results presented that based on the current climate,the suitable areas of this species in China distribute between 16.544°N-32.422°N. The high suitable areas account for the country＇s total areas 7.53% proportion and distribute in Hainan,most parts of south of Guangdong and Guangxi,southeast of Yunnan and Sichuan basin,etc. Unsuitable areas account for 70.90 %,mainly distribute in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Hebei,Beijing,Tianjin,Henan,Shandong,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Qinghai,Gansu,Xinjiang,Xizang. While based on the future climate of China it predicted that by 2020,the northern boundary of suitable areas will northwards to 33.408°N,the northern boundary of high suitable areas will become 32.867°N,the high suitable areas account for 9.76%;Compared with the range of suitable areas in 2020,the northern boundary of high suitable areas will northwards to 33.068°N in 2050,unsuitable areas will decrease to 65.74%,while the proportion of high suitable areas will increase to 10.76%; by 2100,both the south and northern boundary of suitable areas will northwards between 18.25°N and 37.925°N,the proportion of high suitable areas will decrease to 5.68% for the further change of the climate. In order to prevent the introduction and spread of Monacrostichus citricola,the quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more in China.

关 键 词：橘实锤腹实蝇 适生性 CLIMEX ARCGIS 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]