基于超调模型和虚拟经济视角的汇率动态分析  

Analysis on Exchange Rate Dynamic from the Angle of Overshooting Model and Fictitious Economy

作　　者：林楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院,天津300222

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2010年第9期74-78,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70873087);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(07JA790047);天津财经大学科研发展项目(Q1002)

摘　　要：汇率决定及其动态调整分析是汇率理论的研究内核。文章以汇率超调模型为基础,突出虚拟经济与实体经济双轮驱动及其与宏观经济总供给和总需求关联运行的作用机理,结合非线性宏观金融理论在货币供需分析中引入可交易金融资产,尝试构建新的分析框架。在虚拟经济与实体经济视角下分析美元名义汇率的动态变化,并以此为基础进行实证研究,考察美元汇率及经济失调。The analysis of exchange rate decision and its dynamic adjustment are the core of exchange rate theory.In this paper,based on the exchange rate overshooting model,we highlight the mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy and their two-wheeled driven manner operation,which is associated with the aggregate supply and aggregate demand of macro-economic.With the help of non-linear macro-finance theory,we introduce tradable financial assets into the money supply and demand analysis,and try to make a new analytical framework.From the angle of fictitious economy and real economy,we analyze the dynamic changes in the nominal exchange rate U.S.dollars,and use it as a basis for empirical research,examining the U.S.dollar exchange rate and economic misalignment.

关 键 词：汇率超调 虚拟经济 美元汇率 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]