三参数月水量平衡模型在丹江口水库控制流域的应用  

Application of three-parameter monthly water balance model in Danjiangkou Reservior Basin

作　　者：冯小冲[1] 王银堂[1] 胡庆芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2010年第3期5-7,11,共4页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAB04A07022006BAB14B02)

摘　　要：基于水热平衡方程和流域蓄泄关系,建立了流域三参数月水量平衡模型,该模型概化了径流、降雨、蒸发和流域蓄水量之间的关系,并根据分区域汇流特点计算月径流量。利用该模型对丹江口上游7个子流域及全流域1977—1987年的月径流过程进行模拟和检验,率定期和检验期的确定性系数分别为0.85和0.80,径流总量相对误差分别为0.7%和0.2%。模拟和检验结果表明,所建模型具有较强的适用性,能较好地模拟丹江口水库控制流域及其各子流域的月径流过程,为建立丹江口水库月径流预报模型提供了可靠的技术途径。A three-parameter monthly water balance model for a river basin was established.The proposed model was based on the hydrothermal equilibrium equation and the relationship between water storage and discharge of the basin and generalized the relationship among runoff,rainfall,evaporation and storage capacity.The monthly runoff was calculated according to the features of sub-basin concentration of flows.The model was employed to simulate and validate the runoff process of 7 sub-basins upstream of Danjiangkou Reservoir and the whole basin from 1977 to 1987.The value of deterministic coefficient DC of the whole basin was 0.85 for the calibration period and 0.80 for the validation period.The value of relative error of the total runoff was 0.7% for the calibration period and 0.2% for the validation period.The results show that the present three-parameter monthly balance model is feasible in the simulation of the runoff process of the whole basin and different sub-basin of Danjiangkou Reservoir.It provides a reliable technical approach for the establishment of Danjiangkou Reservior monthly runoff forecast model.

关 键 词：月水量平衡模型 丹江口水库 径流模拟 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程] P33[天文地球—水文科学]