中国经济系统物质减量化与经济增长的关联分析  

Linking Analysis on China's Material Dematerialization and Economic Growth

作　　者：王亚菲[1] 余玥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第7期112-119,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"国家统计数据质量管理研究"(No.09&ZD040);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"我国资源;环境;人口与经济承载能力研究"(No.06JZD0020);全国统计科学研究计划项目"中国经济系统物质流核算与评估"(No.2008LZ033);中央财经大学学科建设基金资助

摘　　要：资源紧缺已经成为制约中国经济迅速发展的瓶颈,"物质减量化"是从根本解决这一问题的关键。本文以欧盟物质流核算指标为基础,对中国1981-2008年的物质投入量与经济增长水平的关联程度进行了分析,并拟合了环境库兹涅茨曲线。结果表明,在1981-2008年间,中国单位经济增长所需的物质量在减少,实现了相对物质减量化,且减量化的速度于2005年后开始逐年加快。但中国的物质消耗总量仍在逐年增加,并没有出现绝对物质减量的趋势,中国经济仍然承受着巨大的环境压力。最后,本文根据测算结果提出了相关建议,认为应制定输入方政策,直接预防污染的发生,给予人们自发提高物质利用效率的激励;污染物排放标准的设定需着眼于整个经济系统;中国应关注隐流对环境造成的巨大压力;发展循环经济核算账户、提高人们对物质减量化的认识、推动中国对经济系统物质流核算及物质减量化的研究;物质流核算把经济系统作为"黑箱"模型,在未来应结合其他方法对物质流出现变化的原因作进一步研究。China＇s economy encountered a bottleneck of resources whereas dematerialization can get to the root of the problem and solve it thoroughly. With the data from 1981 to 2008, this article applies the EW-MFA indicators recommended by ERUOSTAT with the economic indicators such as GDP to do the linking analysis and fit the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results indicate relative dematerialization of China from 1981 to 2008, with the fact that the general tendency of material use for per-anit economic growth is decreasing. What＇s more, the speed of dematerialization has been accelerating after 2005. However, the scale of China＇ s total material use is expanding year by year and there is no evidence that the absolute dematerialization will appear, suggesting that the China＇ s economy is still subjected to tremendous environmental stress. Finally, some suggestions are provided on the basis of the results. The input-side policies should be developed to directly prevent pollution, and give people self-motivation to improve material utilization efficiency. The settings of pollutant emission standards must focus on the entire economic system. China should concern about the hidden flow which put the enormous pressure on the environment. Developing the recycling economy accounts and raising awareness of the dematerialization can promote the research of China＇ s material flow accounts and dematerialization. Taking the economic system as a ＂black box＂ model, EW-MFA should combine with other methods to investigate material flow changes for the further study.

关 键 词：经济系统物质流核算 物质减量化 关联分析 环境库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]