基于动态交通量的BOT公路项目特许期决策模型  

Decision-Making Model on Concession Term for BOT Highway Project on the Basis of Dynamic Traffic Volume

作　　者：侯县平[1] 黄登仕[1] 王俊明 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都610031 [2]中铁信托有限责任公司,成都610041

出　　处：《管理评论》2010年第7期39-45,共7页Management Review

摘　　要：基于影响BOT收费公路项目特许期的关键因素交通量的动态性,即交通量受时间和收费费率双重影响的特性,构建了特许期的决策模型。通过仿真实验结果更进一步阐明,要对BOT公路项目特许期作出合理的决策,就需要准确预测交通量的增长率,并确定合理的收费费率,也就是要对交通量的动态性进行科学量化。A decision-making model on the concession term is established based on the dynamic traffic volume influenced by time and toll rate, which is the key factor that influences the concession term of BOT toll road project. Results of simulation show that, in order to make a reasonable decision on the concession term of BOT highway project, it is necessary to make a good forecast of the increase rate of traffic volume and to decide a rational toll rate so that the dynamic of traffic volume can be described scientifically.

关 键 词：BOT 收费公路 特许期 动态交通量 决策模型 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]