基于效益分析的济南市城市合理用地规模研究  

Study on Rational Urban Land Scale in Jinan Based on Benefits Analysis

作　　者：王筱明[1,2] 郑新奇[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221008 [2]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014 [3]中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第6期160-165,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.40571119);国家社会科学基金资助项目(No.07BZZ015);国家科技支撑项目资助课题(No.2006BAB15B03);济南市土地利用总体规划修编(No.2006-2020)资助

摘　　要：城市用地规模研究是城市社会经济发展战略的基础研究之一,与土地利用效益密切相关。土地利用效益既是衡量土地利用水平的一项重要指标,也是衡量城市规模的基本出发点,它在一定程度上反映了城市的经济发展水平,通过对用地效益的分析能够反映城市土地利用的集约程度。本文以二、三产业产值与城市建成区面积之比作为衡量城市用地效益的指标,通过计算1997-2007年的建设用地与第二、三产业增长弹性系数分析济南市建成区用地规模与用地效益的关系及城市扩张的合理性,并选取广州市、南京市、青岛市、北京市、上海市作为比较对象,通过2000-2007年城市间用地规模与用地效益的关系对比,进一步分析济南市未来城市发展过程中充分合理利用土地的必要性及继续扩大城市规模的可行性。最后运用回归分析方法、增长弹性模型和逻辑斯蒂模型对未来济南市的合理用地规模做出预测。结果发现,济南市未来城市规模为2015年401 km2,2020年450 km2。研究结果可为编制济南市土地利用规划提供参考。Urban land scale research closely related to land use benefits is one of the basic researches of urban socio-economic development strategy.The benefits of land use are important index to judge the level of land use and land scale.To a certain extent,it reflects the level of economic development and the land use intensity of the city.Using the ratio of the output values of the secondary and tertiary industries and the constructed area as a measure of urban land use benefits indicator,the article analyzes the relationship between scale and benefits of urban land to indicate the rationality of urban expansion by calculating the elasticity coefficient of urban land and the secondary and tertiary industries growth from 1997 to 2007 in Jinan.And Guangzhou,Nanjing,Qingdao,Beijing and Shanghai are selected as comparative objects to further analyze the future necessity for rational land use and the feasibility of urban expansion continuously in Jinan city by comparing the scale and benefits of urban land among these cities.Finally,the rational urban land scale of Jinan city in the future is predicted with the method of regression analysis,growth elasticity model and Logistic model.The results show that the rational urban land scale of Jinan city is 401 km2 in 2015 and 450 km2 in 2020 respectively.The research results can be for reference in Jinan land use planning.

关 键 词：城市用地规模 效益分析 用地增长弹性系数 预测方法 济南市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]