基于Markov模型的安宁市土地利用预测  

PREDICTION OF LAND USE IN ANNING CITY BASED ON MARKOV MODEL

作　　者：郜鲁豪[1] 徐旌[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2010年第3期87-89,94,共4页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

摘　　要：根据安宁市2003～2009年土地利用更新调查数据,利用Markov模型以3年为间隔预测安宁市2012～2021年内的土地利用结构变化。结果表明:2012～2021年安宁市的耕地、园地、林地等农用地大量转变为建设用地;为了保障基本社会生活需求,耕地和园地的农作物生产用地向建设用地转变较少,林地向建设用地转变较多。Based on Markov model, with the land use change datas of Anning between 2003 and 2009, this paper predicted the land use changes of Anning between 2012 and 2021. The result showed that the area of cultivated land , garden land and forest land will change into construction land partly during 2012 - 2021. In order to maintain the basic social life, the area of forest land changed into construction land is larger than the area of clultivated land and garden land.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫模型 安宁 土地利用变化 转移矩阵 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]