中国经济增长的投资依赖陷阱——投资流量与资本存量的结构性失衡  

A Pitfall of Investment Dependence in China's Economic Growth——the Structural Disequilibrium Between Investment Flow and Capital Stock

作　　者：尹碧波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济研究所,博士后100871

出　　处：《江苏社会科学》2010年第4期67-72,共6页Jiangsu Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目"完善国家宏观调控体系与保持经济平稳较快发展"(项目批准号:06&ZD028)的研究成果

摘　　要：中国经济经历了长期的高速增长,但从经济增长的动力因素的格兰杰非因果分析中可知,经济增长主要由投资拉动。但是对VAR模型的脉冲响应图和方差分解表明,投资对经济增长的贡献率并没有相应地成为经济增长的误差冲击。而且进一步的分析表明,在货币经济模型的基础上,从投资流量与资本存量的角度来看,中国经济高速增长中的这种投资依赖陷阱导致了中国宏观经济各个方面的结构性失衡。The Chinese economy has undergone a long period of rapid growth,but from Granger noncausality analysis of economic growth factors we can see that economic growth was mainly driven by investment. However,the impulse response of the VAR model map and variance decomposition shows that the contribution of investment to economic growth rate and there is no corresponding impact of economic growth,the main reason for the error. And further analysis showed that based on a model of monetary economy,from the viewpoint of investment flow and capital stock,the pitfall of investment dependence in China＇s rapid economic growth led to China＇s macro-economic structural disequilibrium in all aspects.

关 键 词：经济增长 投资依赖 资本存量 投资流量 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F124