应用灰色预测GM(1·1)模型预测福州市3种肠道传染病发病趋势的研究  

Prediction of Incidence of 3 Kinds of Intestinal Infectious Diseases in Fuzhou City with Grey Model GM(1,1)

作　　者：官陈平[1] 陈杨[1] 应毓琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省福州市疾病预防控制中心,350004

出　　处：《职业与健康》2010年第16期1813-1815,共3页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的研究福州市3种肠道传染病的发病规律和趋势。方法将1993—2009年痢疾、甲型肝炎、伤寒副伤寒3种肠道传染病的发病率建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型并进行外推5年预测。结果后验差比值C和小误差概率P综合模型检验,3个模型等级结果均为1级。结论通过模型进行分析,3种肠道传染病发病率在未来的5年将下降。[Objective]To study the epidemic regularity and tendency of 3 kinds of intestinal infectious diseases in Fuzhou City.[Methods]The gray GM（1,1） model was set up according to the data of incidence of dysentery,hepatitis A,typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever from 1993 to 2009,The incidences of next 5 years in were predicted.[Results]Posteriori error ratio C and small error probability P were analyzed comprehensively.Model tests of 3 infectious diseases were obtained with grade 1.[Conclusion]Through model analysis,the incidence of 3 intestinal infectious diseases will decrease in the next 5 years.

关 键 词：传染病 发病率 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]