气候变暖背景下祁连山区夏季积雨云变化特征  

Analysis on the Change Characteristics of Cumulonimbus (Cb) in the Qilian Mts. Region under the Background of Global Warming

作　　者：石光普[1,2] 陈少勇[1,2] 董安祥[1] 王银花 冯婧[4] 夏权[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所、甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室、中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省白银市气象局,白银730900 [3]甘肃省靖远县气象局,靖远730600 [4]南京信息工程大学,南京210040

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2010年第7期847-854,共8页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然基金委员会重点项目(40533015)

摘　　要：利用祁连山区及其周边26个气象观测站1961-2005年夏季积雨云形状和气温观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、墨西哥帽小波分析等方法,分析了祁连山区夏季积雨云出现频率的空间分布与时间变化特征,探讨了与气候变暖的关系,并选用同期NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料,对祁连山区夏季积雨云的环流特征进行分析。结果表明:①祁连山区夏季积雨云出现频率明显高于河西走廊和柴达木盆地。②祁连山区夏季平均气温呈逐年上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来,上升趋势更为明显。祁连山区夏季积雨云出现频率明显减少,近45年来祁连山区夏季积雨云出现频率减少近8%。③在3和20年尺度上,祁连山区夏季气温和积雨云出现频率为反相位变化结构为主;在气温振荡最强的10a时间尺度上,20世纪80年代初期以前2者为反相位关系,而之后随着祁连山区显著增温,2者则呈现出同相位变化特征。④在年代际尺度和年际尺度上,祁连山区夏季气温和积雨云出现频率均为显著的负相关关系。分析表明,在气候变暖的背景下,祁连山区和河西走廊的夏季积雨云出现频率减少,而柴达木盆地为增多。⑤祁连山区夏季积雨云出现频次的多少,是对欧亚500hpa环流异常的响应。Based on meteorological data of summer cloud shape and surface air temperature at 26 meteorological stations during 1961-2005 in the Qilian Mts Region and the surrounding areas, using linear regression analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet analysis of the Mexican Hat Function, the temporal variation and spatial distribution of summer Cb cloud arising frequency and the relationship between it and climate warming were analyzed, and the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data in the corresponding period were selected to analyze the circulation characteristics of the summer Cb clouds in the Qilian Mts. Region. The results show that： （1） The summer Cb cloud arising frequency in the Qilian Mts. Region is higher than the Hexi Corridor and the Qaidam Basin. （2） The summer air temperature presents an ascending tendency yearly. The tendency became more clearly since the 1990s, and the summer Cb cloud arising frequency obviously decreased, reducing 8% in the Qilian Mts. Region over the recent 45 years. （3） In the time scales of 3 years and 20 years, the summer Cb cloud arising frequency and air temperature presented an opposite changing structure in the Qilian Mts. Region. In the time scale of 10 years of temperature surge, the characteristics of variations are opposite before the early 1980s. With the rise of temperature both presented the same changing cycles. （4） The decadal and interannual variations of summer Cb cloud arising frequency and air temperature had an obvious negative correlationtains in the Qilian Mts. Region. The analysis shows that under the background of climate warming, the summer Cb cloud arising frequency decreased in the Qilian Mts. Region and the Hexi Corridor, but increased in the Qaidam Basin. （5） The Qilian Mts. Region summer Cb cloud arising frequency responded to the abnormal 500 hPa circulation of in the Eurasian areas.

关 键 词：气候变暖 积雨云 变化特征 祁连山 

分 类 号：P426.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]