基于Copula模型的丰枯频率分析——以南水北调西线工程调水区径流与黄河上游来水的丰枯遭遇研究为例  

RICH-POOR FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF RUNOFF BASED ON COPULA MODEL——A CASE STUDY ON ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY OF RICH-POOR RUNOFF BETWEEN RIVERS IN AREA OF WESTERN ROUTE OF SOUTH TO NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT AND THAT OF THE UPPER REACH OF THE YELLOW RIVER

作　　者：丁志宏[1,2] 冯平[1] 张永[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]黄河水利科学研究院水资源研究所,河南郑州450003 [3]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100011

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2010年第7期759-764,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50579049)

摘　　要：以道孚、绰斯甲、足木足和兰州水文站1960~2000年的同步天然年径流量系列为基础,应用Copula方法构造了南水北调西线一期工程调水区径流与黄河上游来水之间的联合分布,具体分析了调水区径流与黄河上游来水的丰枯遭遇频率。结果表明：由西向东依次按鲜水河、绰斯甲河、足木足河的顺序,调水河流与黄河上游丰枯同步（异步）的频率在递增（递减）,到了足木足河,其丰枯同步的频率已大于丰枯异步的频率;有利于调水到黄河的频率在递减,但仍保持在30%以上,略大于南水北调中线工程的利于调水频率;且调水区径流与黄河上游来水同枯的频率维持在26%以下,这些对于南水北调西线一期工程的实施都是有利的。Based on the synchronous natural annual runoff time series from 1960 to 2000 year at Daofu,Chuosijia,Zumuzu and Lanzhou hydrological stations,Copula method was applied to construct the runoff joint distribution between the rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project and the upper reach of the Yellow River,and the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probabilities of rich-poor runoff between them were thoroughly analyzed.The results show that with the order as Xianshui River,Chuosijia River,Zumuzu River from west to east,the synchronous（asynchronous）encounter probabilities of rich-poor runoff between the rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project and the upper reach of the Yellow River augment（decrease）orderly and the synchronous probability between Zumuzu Siver and the upper reach of the Yellow River has been greater than the asynchronous probability between them;The probabilities that are propitious to transfer water resources to the Yellow River decrease orderly,but they all greater than 30% and they are a little greater than the corresponding probabilities in the Middle Route of South to North Water Transfer Project;the synchronous poor probabilities between the two areas are all bellow 26%,and all of these results are propitious to carry through construction of the First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project.

关 键 词：南水北调 西线工程 黄河上游 径流 COPULA方法 丰枯遭遇 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]