美国国内需求与美中贸易收支  

Domestic Demand of USA and US-China Trade Balance

作　　者：范言慧[1] 张金平[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学金融学院,100029

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2010年第8期35-41,共7页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"金融危机;资本流动与我国经济增长"(项目批准号:09CJL030);对外经济贸易大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设子项目"人民币双边实际有效汇率与FDI流入研究";"FDI流入与我国内外资企业间工资差距的研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文运用1994至2009年的季度数据对美中双边贸易的影响因素进行了考察。结果发现:影响美国对中国贸易逆差的因素主要是美国国内的私人消费和投资;美国私人消费的增加不仅会显著提高美国从中国的进口,而且还抑制了美国对中国的出口,而真正有助于美国出口的是中国的经济增长。就长期而言,两国实际汇率变动对我国出口的影响并不显著。上述结论意味着,如果当前美国失业率持续处于高位,其对中国出口的负面影响仍将存在。而未来美国消费习惯和经济增长模式的转变必将影响中国的出口,中国应尽早进行经济增长模式和产业结构的调整。Based on further classification pirical analysis of the bilateral trade between of the demand in the USA, this paper conducts an emChina and USA with seasonal data from 1994 to 2009. The results show that： the real important factors influencing US-China trade deficit are private consumption and investment of the United States. The increase of private consumption of the United States will not only push its import from China up, but also bring its export to China down. The really favorite factor that can promote its export is China＇ s economic growth. The foreign exchange level in the long run cannot make a significant impact on China＇ s export, while in the short run that is not the case. These indicate that if the unemployment rate in the USA remains high, its negative effect on China＇ s economy will continue, and the changes in the consumption custom and economic growth pattern of the USA also require China to adjust its industrial structure and economic growth pattern.

关 键 词：美中贸易收支 美国国内需求 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]