人民币激进升值对中国经济冲击的动态CGE分析  

A Dynamic CGE Study in Effects of Sharp RMB Appreciation on Influence to Chinese Economy

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 刘亦文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2010年第4期91-94,共4页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University

摘　　要：人民币升值对中国宏观经济各变量的影响十分明显,除对贸易条件与CPI呈正向作用之外,其他变量都是负向的。人民币升值的负面影响主要体现在服装纺织等货物贸易行业,对种植、养殖、运输等行业影响不大,对金属、机械设备加工等行业有正面经济效应。总之,目前人民币适合逐步加快升值幅度,而不适合立即进行大幅度升值。The impact of RMB appreciation on each variable of Chlna＇s is obvious. Its influence on the terms of trade and CPI is positive, while its influence on other variables is negative. The negative impact of RMB appreeiation is mainly reflected in the clothing and textile trade in goods industries, RMB appreciation does not affect planting, breeding, transportation and other industries, while it has positive economic effects on the metal, machinery equipment and processing industries. In short, It is good for gradual RMB appreciation but not substantial RMB appreciation.

关 键 词：人民币升值 CGE模型 MCHUGE模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F124