基于预测有效度的矿山安全组合预测模型研究  

Research on combination forecasting model for mine safety based on forecast availability

作　　者：赵雯雯[1] 叶义成[1] 邢冬梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院(冶金矿产资源高效利用与造块湖北省重点实验室),湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《矿山机械》2010年第14期78-81,共4页Mining & Processing Equipment

摘　　要：依据组合预测有效度的定义,以单项预测在预测区间内预测精度均值最大为准则,建立了基于单项预测的加权组合预测模型,给出了加权系数的线性规划最优计算模型。应用基于灰色预测与指数平滑预测的组合预测模型研究了我国矿业事故数基本趋势问题,证明应用此模型对矿业安全系统预测分析不仅提高了预测精度,且模型直观、计算简洁,具有较高的实际应用价值。According to the definition of availability of combination forecast as well as the maximum average of forecasting precision of individual forecast within forecasting zone serving as the criterion,a weighted combination forecasting model was established based on individual forecast,and the optimal computation model of linear planning of weighted coefficient offered also.The forecasting model combining grey forecasting and exponential smoothing forecasting was used to study general tendency of domestic mining accidents,it is proved that the model not only can improve the forecasting precision at forecasting mine safety system,but has perceptual appearance,simple computation method and excellent practical value.

关 键 词：预测有效度 组合预测 矿山安全 安全事故 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]