Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea  

作　　者：卞林根 林学椿 夏兰 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences [2]National Climate Center,CMA

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Polar Science》2010年第1期11-21,共11页极地研究（英文版）

基　　金：funded by Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2006BAB18B05);National Natural Science Foundation of China(40905048)

摘　　要：Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002.The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented.The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice,that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area.The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer（June-August） precipitation in China.The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south,and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin.While the winter index is positive（negative）,the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier（later）,with a probability of 79%（80%）.Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002.The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented.The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice,that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area.The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer（June-August） precipitation in China.The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south,and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin.While the winter index is positive（negative）,the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier（later）,with a probability of 79%（80%）.Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

关 键 词：Antarctica sea-ice oscillation index summer precipitation East Asia monsoon. 

分 类 号：P731.15[天文地球—海洋科学]