就业风险对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响——模型与实证  

The Effects of Employment Risks on Labor Migration:Model and Positive Analysis

作　　者：程名望[1] 潘烜[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2010年第3期39-46,共8页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金(200802471084);全国教育科学"十一五"规划课题(EAA080254)

摘　　要：农村剩余劳动力转移既是我国实现经济持续增长必须面对的重大课题,也是解决我国"三农"问题的重要途径。本文的理论模型表明,就业风险是影响我国农村剩余劳动力转移的重要因素,且创新性地发现就业风险对农村剩余劳动力转移影响的传导机制是间接的;基于调查问卷的实证分析表明,自身能力、就业环境和就业条件对农村剩余劳动力转移有显著影响。总体来看,目前我国农村剩余劳动力的就业风险较大,形势不容乐观。我国需要尽快建立农村剩余劳动力转移的长效机制,改善城镇就业环境、提高农村劳动力的自身素质、降低农村剩余劳动力就业风险,以保证农村劳动力转移的有序性、平稳性和持续性。Rural surplus labor migration is not only the major issue we are facing to maintain the sustainable economic growth but also the essential way to solve 'three issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers' in China. The theoretical model shows that employment risk is important factor which affecting rural surplus labor migration in China, and in an innovative way to find employment risk on the impact of rural surplus labor is the indirect transmission mechanism. Further positive analysis based on 845 questionnaire shows that ability to migrant workers, employment environment, and employment Conditions have a significant effect to rural surplus labor migration. Generally speaking, currently, for those surplus rural labor forces, they are facing more employment risks, which indicate the overall situation is serious. From what has been concluded in this paper, it can be found that long-term mechanism of rural surplus labor migration must be established as soon as possible. Therefore, to ensure the orderly, stable and sustainable migration of rural labor force, it is a important issue to be solved just like improving employment environment in the town, promoting the qualities of rural labor forces,and reducing employment risks.

关 键 词：农村劳动力转移 就业风险 就业环境 就业条件 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]