气候变化与波动对龙羊峡流量的影响及未来趋势的预估  

Impacts of Climate Change and Fluctuations on Flows into the Longyangxia Reservoir

作　　者：申红艳[1] 李林[1] 陈晓光[2] 戴升[1] 王振宇[1] 刘彩虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,西宁810001 [2]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,西宁810001

出　　处：《资源科学》2010年第8期1513-1519,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：十一五科技支撑项目(编号:2007BAC03A06);中国气象局气候变化专项(编号:CCSF-09-14);青海省科技厅项目共同资助

摘　　要：本文从气候变化与波动的角度出发,分析了位于黄河上游的龙羊峡水库流量变化与气候条件的响应关系,发现气温、降水及蒸发的波动变化对水库流量有很大影响,依此关系建立了流量预估模型;并根据气候模式输出数据经降尺度处理生成的未来气候情景,对未来不同排放情景下龙羊峡水库流量进行了预估。结果表明:未来两个时期(2010s、2020s)龙羊峡平均流量均较基准期(1988年-2008年)增加,但在不同气候变化情景下,流量变化有明显的差异,其中A2情景下平均流量分别增加6.3%(2010s)和6.1%(2020s),B2情景下增加20.0%(2010s)和10.7%(2020s),据此,未来气候变化对龙羊峡灌区的可能影响将利大于弊,但仍具有较大不确定性。In this paper, characteristics of surface water resources and climate over the Longyangxia Reservoir areas, lying in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, were analyzed using meteorological and flow observations, with examining the feedbacks and interactions between water resources and climate. It was found that temperature, precipitation and evaporation have a great influence on the flows into the reservoir. First, there is generally negative correlation between temperature and flow. Flows in spring respond rapidly to temperature variations. There is a significant effect of the maximum temperature on flows in spring and summer. Flows in autumn showed an apparent positive response to the minimum temperature in summer and autumn. Second, precipitation in summer has the most significant impact on the flows, which lasted by autumn. Flows in autumn have the most marked response to precipitation. Flows in winter have an apparent response to precipitation in the last summer. Third, the correlation between evaporation and flows was found not obvious compared with the precipitation. Only flows in autumn were observed to be sensitive to contemporaneous evaporation and annual evaporation. Annual evaporation and mean annual flow showed weak positive correlation. In general, variations in precipitation and temperature jointly affect the flows into the reservoir in the arid and semi-arid region. On the basis of above analyses, a prediction model of the flows into the reservoir was established. Parameters of the model were tuned satisfactorily in order to reliably estimate the flows into the reservoir. Meanwhile, it was indicated that climate change is the most primary factor affecting the flows into the reservoir. In terms of future climate scenarios provided by means of the down-scaling climate model, the flows under different emission scenarios were predicted. Results showed that the mean flows into the reservoir will increase in the 2010s and 2020s compared with the baseline specified from 1988 to 2008. Under different em

关 键 词：气候变化 流量 影响 趋势预估 龙羊峡 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]