动态经济系统中的一种预测方法研究  

Study of a Forecasting Method for Dynamic Economic Systems

作　　者：孙楚乔[1] 韩文秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学系统工程研究所

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》1999年第2期103-108,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：提出了一种适合于动态经济系统的预测方法．本文注意到静态因果预测模型直接用于动态预测时所存在的缺陷，提出了一种补偿模型用以对因果预测结果作加性补偿．补偿模型试图从经济系统及其变量的历史数据中发掘有关系统发展变化的动态信息，并从对这些信息的分析中得出加性补偿量．A forecasting method suitable for dynamic economic systems is studied in this paper. Considering the deficiencies of static causalitive forecasting models when they are used directly in dynamic forecasting, the paper presents a compensating model to give a dynamic compensation to these static models. Compensating model is used to find out the information about the dynamic development of economic systems from the data of systems themselves and their variables, and then derive the additive compensation value from the analysis of above information.

关 键 词：动态经济系统 预测方法 DEA 经济预测 经济系统 

分 类 号：F019.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F201