基于ARIMA模型的linux内核进化预测分析  

Linux Kernel Analysis on the Evolution and Forecast Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：郑巍[1] 许旻鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东技术师范学院,广东广州510635

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2010年第14期227-229,共3页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：linux内核进化有较明显的超线性趋势和内在规律。科学地预测软件进化,找到一种简易又有足够精度的预测方法是管理软件工程的一项重要基础性工作。以linux的52个内核版本数据作为时间序列,用ARIMA模型建模并做出linux进化预测,将预测结果和2009年的linux内核进化实际结果进行对比,预测结果令人满意,表明该类模型可以用于linux进化预测。It becomes much more visible in the evolution of the ultra-linear trends,as well as obvious intrinsic rules,in the linux kernel evolution to predict the software evolution scientifically for the management of software engineering,and it needs a easier and sufficient precision way to forecast.Taking the 52 linux kernel version as the time-series data,the paper built an ARIMA model and forecasting to make linux evolution,with the comparison of the forecast results with the actual results of the linux kernel in 2009.The results are satisfactory,showing that the type of model can be used to predict the evolution of linux.

关 键 词：LINUX ARIMA SPSS 软件进化 软件度量 

分 类 号：TP316.81[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]