城镇登记失业率影响因素的探讨  

Research on The Influential Elements of Registered Unemployment Rate In Cities and Towns

作　　者：杨同豪[1] 徐光亮[1] 石林[1] 指导组(指导老师) 

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学电子技术学院,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2010年第15期38-46,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：就城镇登记失业率的相关问题进行了研究．利用格兰杰因果关系检验解决了确定影响因素的问题；建立了主成分分析模型和基于序列相关性的误差修正模型，解决了各影响因素和城镇登记失业率之间关联的问题；并利用所建模型对未来我国的就业前景作出仿真预测，得出了相应结论．This paper discusses the related issues about registered unemployment rate in cities and towns. Granger causality test is employed to ascertain the influential elements. In order to research the relations between the elements and the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, we build up a principal component analysis model and a error correction model based on serial correlation. Finally, using the model, we make a simulation prediction on the employment prospects of our country and draw the appropriate conclusions.

关 键 词：城镇登记失业率 格兰杰因果关系检验 主成分分析 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F249.2