我国就业人数的主要影响因素分析及前景预测  

An Analysis and Forecast of the Main Factors in China’s Employment Population

作　　者：朱家明[1] 王犁[1] 童金萍[1] 郭艳芳 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2010年第15期57-70,共14页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：安徽省高校省级自然科学研究项目(KJ2009B076Z);安徽省教育厅教研项目(2007jyxm282)

摘　　要：针对就业问题，通过有关数据分析，运用SPSS，采取主成分分析法提取主要影响因素或指标，建立了就业人数的数学模型，分别从包含主要的经济社会指标、分行业、分地区、分就业人群角度，建立比较精确的数学模型．据国家有关决策规划对2009年及2010年上半年的就业前景进行仿真．最终结合模型与仿真结果，为提高就业人数或减少城镇登记失业率提出较好建议．By using SPSS and analyzing relevant data, the aim is to extract several employment-affecting factors or indicators and a mathematical model of China＇s employ- ment population is established. This model is comparatively accurate for it includes the main economic and social indicators and it covers a variety of industries, areas and age groups. Then, based on the government＇s employment policies and strategies, a simulative approximation of employment rate is given in 2009 and the first two quarters of 2010. Finally, according to the mathematical model and simulations, a proposal is provided to enlarge the employment population and reduce the unemployment rate.

关 键 词：就业 影响就业指标体系 灰色关联度 相关系数 神经网络预测 

分 类 号：N945.24[自然科学总论—系统科学]