劳动力负担对东亚经济起飞的影响——来自1969～1996年历史数据的经验分析  

The Effects of Dependency Ratio on East Asian Miracle:Empirical Analysis on the Historical Data from 1969 to 1996

作　　者：李魁[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院经济研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2010年第4期67-76,共10页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：文章构建了引入"劳动力负担"因子的增长模型,通过空间面板计量分析发现,劳动力负担减轻显著地促进了东亚经济起飞,但少儿抚养负担和老年赡养负担变化的影响不同。东亚人口转变带来的劳动力负担下降通过收入增加机制、人力资本提升机制、投资扩张机制、劳动力供给机制、公共支出机制贡献于经济增长。然而,未来劳动力负担的加重将通过上述几个机制反过来对经济增长形成挑战。This paper establishes a growth model with dependency ratio as an explanatory variable, empirically analyzing the take-off of East Asia based on the spatial panel model. The results show that the reduction of dependency ratio significantly promoted the take-off of East Asian economies,while there are different effects for the dependency ratios of the children and of the old age. Declining of dependency ratio brought by demographic transition in East Asia contributes to economic growth by the mechanisms such as income increase, human capital improvement, investment expansion, labor supply, and enhancement in public expenditure. However, increase of dependency ratio will raise challenges for their economic growth. Timely adjustment of retirement age, reemployment of the elderly and favored investment in health and education help sustain economic growth in East Asian.

关 键 词：东亚奇迹 劳动力负担 年龄结构 空间计量面板模型 

分 类 号：F13[经济管理—世界经济] F249.3F224