Current Situation and Prospects for the Urbanization of Chinese Migrant Workers  

农民工城镇化现状与前景(英文)

作　　者：章铮 

机构地区：[1]Guanghua School of Management, Peking University

出　　处：《Social Sciences in China》2010年第3期168-193,共26页中国社会科学（英文版）

摘　　要：This article uses the age-structure/life-cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend to be middle-aged, we first apply the age structure/life cycle model to carry out our estimations, pointing out that in order to complete the urbanization of their families, migrant worker couples usually have to work for thirty years consecutively after marriage. On this basis, the article constructs a working life table for migrant workers and uses it to estimate the total quantity of Chinese migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity required for urbanization. Taking into consideration future changes in the age structure of enterprise employment, we estimate that over the sixty-nine million migrant workers who were under thirty years old in 2006, together with their families, would already be in possession of the minimum economic conditions for settling in urban areas.本论文运用年龄结构—生命周期方法分析农民工就业状况对他们城镇化的影响。基于中国企业用工年轻化、农民工失业中年化的现状,论文首先运用年龄结构—生命周期模型进行了估算,指出为了全家城镇化,农民工夫妻婚后一般需要连续工作30 年。在此基础上,论文构建了农民工工作寿命表,用以估算中国具备城镇化最低限度经济能力的农民工总量。考虑到未来企业用工年龄结构的变化,预计2006年时年龄在 30岁以下的6900多万农民工及其家属都已具备在城镇定居的最起码的经济条件。

关 键 词：urbanization of migrant workers employment of migrant workers age-structure/ life-cycle model length of employment middle-aged unemployment 

分 类 号：D412.6[政治法律—政治学]