基于指数型新弱化缓冲算子的能源需求预测  

Energy Requirement Forecast Based on the New Weakening Buffer Operators with Exponential Type

作　　者：高岩[1] 周德群[1] 刘晨琛[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院 [2]济宁医学院信息工程学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2010年第8期1211-1214,共4页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90510010);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20050287026)

摘　　要：在灰色系统理论缓冲算子公理体系下,构造了一类新的指数型弱化缓冲算子,有效地解决了冲击扰动数据序列在建模预测过程中出现的定量预测结果与定性分析结论不符的问题.并将该弱化缓冲算子应用在中国能源需求的短期预测中。研究结果表明,该弱化缓冲算子能显著提高数据预测模型的预测精度.Under the axiomatic system of buffer operator in grey system theory,a new class of weakening buffer operators with exponential type is established. It can effectively resolve the problem that there are some contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis in pretreatment for vibration data sequences. Finally,this paper gives the forecast about the China energy requirement in a short period by using the new weakening buffer operators. The conclusion shows the new weakening buffer operators increase the forecast precision of the data forecast model remarkable.

关 键 词：缓冲算子 弱化缓冲算子 能源需求 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]