江苏省农业面源污染与经济增长关系的实证  

The Positive Analysis on the Relationship Between Agriculture Non-point Source Pollution and Economic Growth of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：张锋[1] 胡浩[1] 张晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第8期80-85,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70873060);2007年国家教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(编号:07JZD0007)的阶段性成果;江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(编号:X09B-063R)的支助

摘　　要：运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,考察了江苏省1990-2007年农业面源污染与经济增长的动态演进关系。研究结果表明:①经济增长是影响江苏省农业面源污染的重要原因,农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线规律在一定程度上得到验证;②农业面源污染对江苏省经济增长的影响不明显,且具有一定滞后效应;③方差分解结果显示人均GDP是解释农业面源预测方差的重要变量,而农业面源污染对经济增长的预测方差贡献度则相对较小。因此,我们要充分关注江苏省经济快速增长对农业环境质量恶化所带来的负面影响。同时,为了充分体现农业面源污染对江苏省经济增长的反作用,其关键前提是必须要对农业面源污染所导致的负外部效应进行清晰的界定,以及建立一个有效、完善的农业资源配置、污染权的市场交易机制,以充分发挥资源约束和环境恶化对涉农微观经济主体投资、生产和消费行为的影响,进而对经济增长形成反作用。Based on the VAR model＇s impulse response functions and variance decomposition, using the data from 1990 to 2007 of Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between agriculture non-point source pollution and economic growth. The results can be listed as follows： ①Economic growth is the important reason of agricultural non-point source pollution in Jiangsu Province, and at the same time, the agricultural non-point source pollution of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis has been authenticated. ② The impact of agricultural non-point source pollution on the economic growth is not obvious, and has a certain lag effect. Variance decomposition results show that per capita GDP is an important variable to explain the predicted variance of agricultural non-point source, while contribution degree of agricultural non-point source pollution on predicted varicanee of economic growth is relatively small. Therefore, we should pay attention to alleviate negative effects of the rapid economic growth of Jiangsu Province to the quality of agricultural environment. Meanwhile, in order to fully reflect the negative effect of agricultural non-point source pollution to the economic growth in Jiangsu Province, the key premise is that we must clearly define the negative external effects of the agricultural non-point source pollution, and establish an effective, comprehensive market trading mechanism of agricultural resource product, and pollution rights in order to give full play of the role of resource constraints and environmental degradation to the main agriculture-related micro-economic investment, production and consumption behavior.

关 键 词：农业面源污染 经济增长 GRANGER因果检验 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F323.22[经济管理—产业经济]