长株潭城市群耕地动态变化及驱动力实证研究  

Empirical Study on Trend and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Dynamic Change in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations

作　　者：刘庆[1,2] 陈利根[2] 何长元[1] 张凤荣[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学资源环境学院,长沙410128 [2]南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京210095 [3]中国农业大学资源环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2010年第4期122-126,共5页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70673037);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(04JZD0008)

摘　　要：利用长株潭城市群近10年的土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,宏观分析了该区域耕地动态变化的趋势,并用主成分分析和多元逐步回归分析法探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。结果表明,长株潭城市群耕地资源的时空变化特征显著,耕地呈现出逐年减少的总体趋势;得出社会发展因素、经济增长因素、农业科技水平的提高因素以及国家的相关政策是长株潭城市群耕地资源变化的四大类主要驱动因素;总体上,耕地面积与社会经济发展各因素间的相关系数约低于累计耕地面积与各因素之间的相关系数,说明该区域耕地减少与社会经济发展存在时间上的错位性,即经济和社会发展滞后于对耕地资源的占用。According to the statistical and survey data of land use in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations from 1999 to 2008,the trend of cultivated land change was analyzed.As a result of the principal component analysis（PCA） and multiple regressive analysis,the main driving forces of cultivated land changes were discussed.Results show that the spatial-temporal features of cultivated land changes in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations are notable,and the cultivated land decreases year by year.Moreover,it is verified that the groups of social development and economic growth and agricultural science and technology level and policy on Sloping Land Conversion（to forests） Program（SLCP） are the main driving factors of cultivated land dynamic change,such as the indexes of total people and investment in the fixed assets and urbanization level and power of agricultural machinery,et al.Generally,correlation coefficient of cultivated land area and various factors concerning socio-economic development is less than that of cumulative cultivated land area and those factors.Such fact indicates that cultivated land reduction and socio-economic development are temporally mismatched.In other words,economic and social development lags behind the occupation degree of farmland resources in the region.

关 键 词：耕地动态变化 驱动因子 土地相对变化率 数理统计方法 长株潭城市群 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]