不确定条件下投资决策的期权分析  

Analysis on Option Method in Investment Decision-making under Uncertain Conditions

作　　者：王家华[1] 张连丰[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京审计学院金融学院,江苏南京211815 [2]审计署京津冀特派办,天津300300

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2010年第7期14-17,共4页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目(09SJB790024)的成果之一;江苏省“青蓝工程”资助

摘　　要：传统财务决策方法不能准确评估不确定条件下项目投资的灵活决策与未来增长机会等潜在价值,而实物期权提出了较好的解决思路。本文分析了不确定性条件下财务决策的期权方法,并通过一个算例来说明实物期权方法与传统投资决策方法的区别。Traditional financial decision-making methods cannot accurately assess the potential value of flexible decision-making and investment growth opportunities under uncertainty.Real options put forward good ideas to value discovery and risk solutions under uncertainty.This paper analyzes the financial decision-making under uncertainty based on option methods,and through numerical examples to illustrate the differences between real options approach and traditional financial methods on investment decision-making.

关 键 词：不确定性 实物期权 投资决策 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]