我国农村居民消费与经济增长协整分析  

China's economic growth in rural consumption and cointegration

作　　者：曹丰[1] 黄淑芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济与管理学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2010年第6期52-55,共4页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

摘　　要：应用1952～2008年我国宏观农村居民消费和GDP数据,通过协整模型分析方法针对农民消费对GDP增长的促进作用进行实证分析。结果表明,农民消费与GDP增长在长期内稳定地存在着协同互动的均衡关系,并且二者互为格兰杰因果关系。通过协整模型发现,长期内,农村居民消费增长1%,我国GDP就会增长1.7483%,其对经济增长的促进作用较大。He Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, the government under the new situation of how to promote rural reform and development, and actively promote consumption of rural residents as a meeting to discuss the issue of focus. In this paper, from 1952 to 2008 China＇s rural household consumption and overall GDP data model through cointegration analysis of consumption to GDP growth for farmers to promote the role of the model. The results show that the growth of rural consumption and GDP in the long term and stable cooperative interaction exists a balanced relationship and both as Granger Causality. Cointegration model found that the long term, consumption growth of 1% of rural residents, China＇s GDP to grow by 1.7483 percent,its role in promoting greater economic growth.

关 键 词：农民消费 经济增长 协整 误差修正模型 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F063[经济管理—政治经济学]