新疆T213数值预报降水评价  

Analysis and Verification of T213 Rainfall Forecast in Xinjiang

作　　者：霍文 秦贺[3] 杨莲梅 

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2010年第3期12-16,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40775056);公益性行业气象行业专项(GYHY200706008);沙漠基金"T213数值预报产品在新疆地区的预报水平评估检验"和沙漠基金(Sqj2009002);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM2006002;IDM200807;IDM200806);国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2008BAC40B05-01);新疆气象局项目(200723)共同资助

摘　　要：利用2006年新疆107个测站的实况降水资料和T213模式的降水预报值,根据中短期天气预报质量检验办法中客观降水检验方法,对T213数值降水预报产品的24 h预报能力进行了分析检验,结果表明:(1)T213对新疆地区暴雨和大暴雨基本无预报能力。(2)T213在新疆区域对于小量和中量降水的整体预报能力北疆要明显好于南疆。(3)T213的预报能力存在一定的季节性,对弱降水过程预报能力较差。(4)从小量到大量降水,T213的空报率和漏报率都很高,整体预报效果不好。Based on the objective rainfall verification method of the quality inspection methods for short-range and mid-range weather forecast,the 24-hour forecasting abilities of the precipitation forecast products of T213 were verified by using observational rainfall from 107 stations in 2006 and precipitation forecast values of T213 global model.The results showed that（：1）the T213 model have poor ability in forecasting torrential rain in Xinjiang;（2）the forecasting ability of T213 model to light and moderate rain in northern Xinjiang is better than that in southern Xinjiang;（3）the forecasting ability of T213 is seasonal and have poor ability in weak precipitation processes;（4） from light rain to heavy rain using T213 to forecast,the rate of false and dismissal alarm are rather high,and forecast effect of T213 is generally not satisfactory in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：T213模式 检验分析 降水 新疆 TS评分 

分 类 号：P412.13[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]