一种改进的质量通量积云参数化方案及预报试验  

An Improved Mass flux Cumulus Parameterization Scheme and Forecasting Experiments

作　　者：薛建军[1] 闫之辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《气象》1999年第5期8-12,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：用国家气象中心有限区域业务预报模式（ＨＬＡＦＳ），以１９９８年８月一次热带风暴降水过程为试验个例，对引入了下曳气流的质量通量积云对流参数化方案和模式中的原质量通量积云参数化方案（仅考虑上升气流）进行了对比试验。结果显示：引入下曳气流后，通过提高对流降水量使降雨强度预报得以提高，更接近于实况；改进后的方案对大雨以上预报水平有一定的改善。By using a limited area operational forecasting model and choosing a precipitation weather process caused by a tropical storm in August 1998,comparative forecasting experiments of an improved mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme taking into account the effects of both updrafts and downdrafts and the original one only includes updrafts used in the model were performanced.The results show that downdrafts contribute significantly to the improvement of the model precipitation forecasts for over 25 0mm.

关 键 词：下曳气流 质量通量 积云 参数化方案 云预报 

分 类 号：P457.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435