运行风险评估中的变压器时变停运模型 (一)基于运行工况的变压器内部潜伏性故障的故障率估计方法  

Time-varying Transformer Outage Model for Operational Risk Assessment Part One Condition Based Failure Rate Estimation Method for Transformer Internal Latent Fault Estimation

作　　者：宁辽逸[1] 吴文传[1] 张伯明[1] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统国家重点实验室,清华大学电机系,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2010年第15期9-13,95,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217908);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50707013)~~

摘　　要：为了建立电力系统运行风险评估中的变压器时变停运模型,给出了基于变压器本体状态监测信息估计内部潜伏性故障的故障率的方法。首先分析了变压器内部潜伏性故障的发展机理,对现有的变压器内绝缘老化模型进行了评述,指出其不适用于估计内部潜伏性故障的故障率。然后选择了能够综合反映内部潜伏性故障发展速率的油中溶解气体分析信息作为表征潜伏性故障发展程度的特征信息,建立估计故障率的多状态马尔可夫过程模型。最后给出了数值算例。A condition based failure rate estimation method for transformer internal latent fault analysis is proposed. The method is used to develop time-varying transformer outage model for operational risk assessment purpose. Firstly,the operating mechanism in developing process of transformer internal latent fault is analyzed,and some comments are given on the existing aging models of transformer internal insulation. Then,dissolved gas analysis （DGA） outcome is used as an indicator to classify transformer’s operating condition. The multi-state Markov process based mathematical estimation model is proposed to estimate the failure rate. Finally,a numerical test is presented.

关 键 词：运行风险评估 时变停运模型 变压器 绝缘老化 油中溶解气体分析 马尔可夫过程 故障率 

分 类 号：TM407[电气工程—电器]