区域港口群多期投资优化决策模型  

Research on regional port group multi-period investment decision-making optimization model

作　　者：匡海波[1,2] 牛文元[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,大连116026 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2010年第8期1414-1421,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70873014)

摘　　要：我国港口群区域中主体分工不明确、低水平重复建设造成港口岸线资源的浪费等现象日益突出;现行的港口投资规划理论与方法,已经无法适应现阶段及未来港口可持续发展的实际需要.本研究以港口群与腹地运输成本和港口建设成本、港口群运营效率为主要优化目标,在分析港口-腹地供需平衡、生态承载力等约束下,建立了区域港口群多期投资优化决策理论模型,填补了港口群投资优化决策理论的空白,从而为防止港口群区域内不理性建设和竞争造成对资源的巨大浪费和生态环境的破坏,具有现实意义.The irrational phenomena of fuzzy division labor,low-level duplicated construction giving rise to waste coastal resources in the China＇s port cluster area were being increasingly prominent.At the same time,the existing port investment planning theory and methods have been unable to adapt to the future of the port at this stage and the actual needs of sustainable development.With analyzing the main optimization objective of the port groups and hinterland transport costs and port construction costs,the port group of operational efficiency,and the constraints of the port - hinterland of supply and demand balance,the ecological carrying capacity and so on,the regional port cluster multi-period model of investment in optimizing decision-making theory and model was established,which filled in the port group optimal investment decision-making theory gaps.It resolved the optimization of the existing investment decision-making theories ignoring the drawbacks such as operational efficiency,ecological carrying capacity of the sustainable development capacity,which prevent the enormous waste of port resources and the destruction of the ecological environment.This guarantees the model＇s practicality and utility.

关 键 词：区域港口群 投资优化 运营效率 多期 生态承载力 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]