中国极端气候事件的群发性规律研究  

A Study of the Characteristics of the Cluster Extreme Events in China

作　　者：杨萍[1,2] 侯威[2] 封国林[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [2]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [3]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2010年第4期365-370,共6页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目40930592;40875040;科技部支撑项目2007BAC03A01;2007BAC29B01;公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200806005

摘　　要：基于k阶最近邻距离丛集点提取算法及一系列理论研究成果,将其应用于群发性极端气候事件的研究中,定义年代际群发性指数以及群发高值区,对中国极端气候事件的群发性规律和年代际空间演变特征进行分析和探讨。研究结果表明,极端高温事件在20世纪60年代与70年代空间分布上存在较大差异;极端低温事件群发性指数70年代在南方地区的加强很可能为该年代际偏冷的气候背景贡献了主要作用;大暴雨事件的群发高值区主要集中在中国的南方地区,这和大暴雨事件的定义可能存在联系;强降水事件的高群发带与中国近50年多雨带的分布格局具有很好的一致性。Based on a comprehensive review for the spatial point theory,the method of k-order nearest-distance is combined with cluster events in order to analyze the characteristic of cluster extreme events in China. Decadal cluster index is defined to access interdecadal spatial variability and it is divided into the first and second high values in order to access the areas which have strong cluster extreme events. The results show that the spatial distribution has large difference between the 1960s and 1970s for extreme high-temperature events. The reinforcement of the cluster index of the extreme low-temperature events in the 1970s may have major activity on the chilling decadal background. The definition of the downpour is the probably reason that the area of high value of the cluster index about downpour centralize in the southern part of China. Strong precipitation is unanimous of the existing decadal variability.

关 键 词：极端温度事件 极端降水事件 群发性 年代际群发性指数 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]