环渤海地区极端降水事件概率分布特征  

Characteristics of the Probability Distribution of the Extreme Precipitation Events around the Bohai Bay

作　　者：郭军[1] 任国玉[2] 李明财[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气候中心,天津300074 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2010年第4期425-432,共8页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题2007BAC29B02;2007BAC03A01;公益性行业科研专项200801001;天津市气象局培育项目

摘　　要：利用环渤海地区60个测站1961～2008年逐日降水资料,采用L-矩参数估计方法对各站超临界值日极端降水拟合广义帕雷托分布。结果表明,广义帕雷托分布能够很好地拟合环渤海地区日极端降水的概率分布,其尺度参数、形状参数与极端降水重现期的地理空间分布密切相关,重现期50、100年一遇的日极端降水空间分布基本一致,山东南部、河北西南部、辽宁西部与河北东北部等区域具有较高极端降水值。Extreme precipitation around the Bohai Bay was modeled by using the Peaks Over Threshold （POT）,which is based on Generalized Pareto Distribution （GPD） with daily precipitation data during 1961 and 2008 from 60 weather stations. The results showed that GPD well fitted the probability distribution of the extreme precipitation around the Bohai Bay. The GPD-fitted scale and shape parameters were closely related to return levels of the extreme precipitations in geographical pattern. Generally,the geographical pattern of the 50-year return level agrees with that of the 100-year return level and the high values are distributed in the southern part of Shandong Province,the western part of Liaoning Province,and the southwestern and northeastern parts of Hebei Province.

关 键 词：广义帕雷托分布 L-矩估计 重现期 极端降水 环渤海地区 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]