新疆多风区极值风速与大风日数的变化趋势  

Variation Tendency of the Extreme Value of Wind Speeds and Gale Frequency over the Windy Regions in Xinjiang

作　　者：陈洪武 辛渝 陈鹏翔 李元鹏 余行杰 白素琴 王胜利 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2010年第4期479-490,共12页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题2007BAC29B02;国家自然基金90915001;中国气象局行业专项项目2008416048;中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目IDM200603;新疆气象局业务新技术课题YX201004

摘　　要：在新疆5大风区代表气象站历史风况资料均一化处理基础上,从平均风速、极端风速强度、极端风速频次、大风持续时间等4个方面分析了极端风气候特征的演变趋势。结果表明:1)达坂城风区瞬间风速≥17.0m.s-1的年大风日数以及极端弱风频次没有显著的变化趋势,但极端强风的强度显著减弱,发生频次显著减少,大风年时数与最长持续时间仅从20世纪90年代中期显著减少,风力可利用时间增加。2)阿拉山口风区极端强风的强度显著减弱,极端强风频次与极端弱风频次均显著减少,大风日数、大风年时数、大风年最长持续时间均从20世纪90年代中期显著减少,风力可利用时间增加。3)十三间房风区仅极端弱风的频次显著增加、平均风速显著减小,其余变化均不明显。4)淖毛湖与哈巴河呈现出对称的极端强风强度显著减弱、极端强风频次显著减少、极端弱风频次显著增加趋势,大风日数、大风年时数、大风年最长持续时间等虽呈显著的减小趋势,但具有很大不确定性。5)十三间房风区平均风速的显著减小主要是弱风天数增加引起的,而其余风区则主要是由极端强风的强度减弱引起,极端风力频率和持续时间的影响作用相对略小。Based on the historical wind data of five weather stations over the windy regions in Xinjiang,and using the homogeneous approach,the extreme climatic revolution tendencies of the wind characteristics were analyzed mainly aiming at four aspects,that is the mean wind speed,the intensity and the frequency of the extreme strong or weak wind,the duration of gale. The results show as follows： 1） No obvious variation tendency showed in the annual frequency of gale in Dabancheng as well as the extreme weak wind,while an evident weaken tendency existed in the intensity of extreme strong wind and a descending trend in the frequency of that. The annual duration of gale and its longest duration have experienced an obvious reducing trend only since the mid of the 1990s. So the chance of available wind power is rising. 2） The intensity of the extreme strong wind was strikingly reducing while the frequency of that was descending as well as the extreme weak wind in Alataw Shankou,and the frequency of gale,annual duration of that and its longest duration have descended evidently only since the mid of the 1990s,so that the chance of available wind power has been increasing. 3） Only the frequency of the extreme weak wind experienced an obvious ascending trend,so that the annual mean wind speed descended strikingly in Shisanjianfang windy region. 4） The frequency and the intensity of the extreme strong wind showed an obvious decrease and weaken trend while evident raising tendency in the frequency of the extreme weak wind over Naomaohu and Habahe Xian windy regions. The frequencies of gale,its annual duration and the longest duration have reduced strikingly,but these situations were uncertain because of the damaged observational surrounding near the stations. 5）The annual mean wind speed reduced obviously mainly caused by the ascending in the frequency of the extreme weak wind in Shisanjianfang windy region,while caused by the weakening in the intensity of the extreme strong wind in the other areas by the means of contra

关 键 词：极端风速 大风日数 气候变化 新疆 

分 类 号：P425.47[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]