基于灰色系统的中国城市化进程中的能源制约  

Energy Constraints of China's Urbanization Development Based on Grey System

作　　者：彭勃[1] 雷家骕[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第9期114-119,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：中国已进入城市化高速发展阶段,与之相伴随的是大量的能源需求。目前,中国城市化进程加快带来的能源需求与面临的能源制约已成为学术界和政府有关部门关注的热点。本文首先讨论了城市化与能源需求之间的关系,进而基于灰色系统Verhulst模型预测了到2020年中国的城市化水平(城市化率),避免了基于钱纳里模型预测中国城市化水平的缺陷。并通过检验城市化水平与能源需求之间的协整关系,得到了二者之间的长期均衡方程,从而预测了2020年中国的能源消费总量。结合中国全面建设小康社会任务目标中关于降低能源消耗的要求,指出了中国节能降耗任务的艰巨性,并提出了相应的对策建议。China has entered the historical stage of high-speed development of urbanization,along with large amount of energy demand.Nowadays,the energy demand and constraints brought by China＇s speeding-up urbanization development become a research focus both in academia and in relative government departments.This paper firstly argues the relationship between the urbanization and energy demand,and then predicts the urbanization level（urbanization rate） of China in 2020 based on Verhulst model of grey system,which avoids the shortage of Chenery model.Cointegration analysis is used to get the long-run equilibrium equation between urbanization rate and energy demand,and then the total energy consumption of China in 2020 is predicted.This paper argues the difficulty of China＇s task of energy-saving and consumption reduction,according to the reducing energy consumption assignment in goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects,and finally proposes some suggestions.

关 键 词：城市化 能源消费 灰色系统 VERHULST模型 预测 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F062.1