中国农业劳动力配置效应再考察——基于三次产业劳动产出弹性动态估计  

Reexamine the Agricultural Labor Allocation Effect in China:Based on the Dynamic Estimates of Industrial Output Elasticity of Labor

作　　者：赵慧卿[1] 郝枫[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134 [2]天津财经大学统计学院,天津300222

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2010年第8期83-90,共8页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目(10CTJ009);天津市哲学社会科学规划课题(TJTJ08-001)

摘　　要：加快农业劳动力向二三产业转移,不仅有利于解决三农问题,对促进我国经济持续健康发展也具有深远意义。本文依据结构主义增长理论,利用总量生产函数经济增长率分解方法,基于三次产业要素产出弹性动态估计结果,对改革开放30年来中国劳动力配置效应及其变化规律进行重新考察。结果显示:三次产业劳动产出弹性差异明显,已有研究中直接用国民经济劳动产出弹性代替的做法存在很强假定性;基于分产业劳动产出弹性重新估算劳动力配置效应,发现其数值明显减小,表明已有文献夸大了配置效应;但其在不同时期更为稳定,说明配置效应是促进我国经济持续发展的重要稳定因素。Accelerating the transfer of labor from agriculture to the secondary and tertiary industries not only benefit solving the issues of agriculture,farmer and rural areas,but also enhance the persistent and healthy economic development in China.Based on the structuralism growth theory and by using the dynamic estimate of industrial output elasticity of factors,this paper breaks down the growth rate of TFP and calculates the labor allocation effect in China during the past 30 years.The results show： firstly,there are great differences in factor output elasticity among various sectors,implying that it is irrational to substitute its industrial value for national estimates;secondly,the outcomes based on industrial estimates are much smaller,implying that most existing researches overestimate the allocation effect;finally,the outcomes based on industrial estimates are more stable,showing that allocation effect is an important stabilizer for China＇s economic growth.

关 键 词：劳动力转移 配置效应 要素产出弹性 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F323.6