1961-2008年山东省农耕期的动态变化  

Dynamic Change of Farming Period in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2008

作　　者：王建源[1] 范里驹[1] 张璇[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东省气候中心,济南250031 [2]山东省气象台,济南250031

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2010年第3期358-363,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：山东省气候中心创新项目"山东省土壤墒情处理系统"

摘　　要：应用山东省86个气象观测站48a的气象资料和山东省1∶25万数字高程,采用回归分析法对山东省农耕期的初、终日及农耕期进行计算,用GIS工具对其进行栅格化,得到15幅栅格面层,并分别对各栅格层进行空间分析和统计计算。结果表明:①在空间上,山东省的各个年代农耕期初日首先从鲁西南开始,然后逐步向东北方向展开,最迟进入农耕期的是山东半岛和鲁中山区;而农耕期终止日期首先从鲁中山区开始,由鲁西北北部逐步向鲁东南展开,终止日期最晚的是鲁南南部和鲁东南沿海;各个年代平均农耕期天数由北向南逐渐增加。②在时间上,20世纪70年代农耕期初日最迟,2001-2008年最早;农耕期终日也是70年代最早,2001-2008年最迟;农耕期天数最少的是70年代,2001-2008年最多。1961-2008年山东省的农耕期变化倾向率为4.2d/10a,有明显增加的趋势。③≥0℃和≥10℃的积温,70年代最少,2001-2008年最多,≥0℃和≥10℃积温的变化倾向率分别为46.3℃.d/10a和23.13℃.d/10a,都有明显增加的趋势。Based on the meteorological data of 86 meteorological stations in Shandong province from 1961 to 2008 and digital elevation models （1∶250000）,the farming period was calculated by using regression analysis method.Statistical analysis and spatial analysis were carried out 15 grid layers with beginning date and ending date of farming period by GIS.The results showed that the beginning date of farming period started at southwest,and moved gradually to northeast,Shandong peninsula and the central mountain in Shandong province was late.The ending date of farming period started at the central mountain in Shandong province,and moved gradually to southeast,Lunan and southeast coast was late.The average farming days increased from north to south.The beginning and ending date of farming period was delayed during 1970s,and advanced during 2001-2008,while the ending date of farming period was on the contrary.The farming period increased at the rate 4.2 days per 10 years from 1961 to 2008.The accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ or ≥10℃ increased at the rate 46.3℃/10y and 23.13℃/10y,respectively.

关 键 词：农耕期 农耕期初日 农耕期终日 积温 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]