闽江河口湿地气候变化趋势与突变分析  

Analysis on Climate Change in Minjiang Estuary Wetland

作　　者：张星[1] 彭云峰[1] 谢怡芳[1] 陈惠[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象局,福州350001 [2]福建省气象科学研究所,福州350001

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2010年第3期364-368,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：福建省科技厅重点项目(2006Y008);福建省自然科学基金项目(W0750001)

摘　　要：应用线性倾向估算法、累积距平以及Mann-Kendall法对闽江河口湿地1961-2006年以来的降水量、温度的变化趋势和突变进行了分析。结果表明:近46a来闽江河口湿地的平均气温表现出明显的上升趋势,其倾向率为0.26℃/10a(P<0.01),在1994年发生突变;四季温度表现出增加趋势,其中冬季增温最为显著,突变时间发生在20世纪90年代和21世纪初;降水量的变化趋势不显著,且没有突变发生。总体而言,闽江河口湿地近46a来的气候存在由冷干向暖湿变化的趋势,这种变化对湿地生态系统的影响有利有弊,但总体上是利大于弊。Based on the observational data of 3 meteorological stations in Minjiang estuary wetland from 1961 to 2006,the variation analysis of precipitation and temperature was conducted by using linear regression and Mann-Kendall method.The results showed that the annual average temperature from 1961 to 2006 increased obviously with the rate 0.26℃ per 10 years.Abrupt change occurred in 1994.The average temperature of each seasons increased,especially in winter,abrupt change occurred in 1990s and early 21st century.The annual precipitation changed little.To sum up,it was becoming warm-humid from cold-dry in Minjiang estuary wetland during last 46 years,whose advantage was bigger than disadvantage to local ecological system.

关 键 词：闽江 湿地 气候变化 变化趋势 MANN-KENDALL法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]