均生函数逐步回归模型在水文长期预报中的应用  

Application of stepwise regression model based on mean generating function in long-term hydrological forecasting

作　　者：冯健 张常俊 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省水文局,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《东北水利水电》2010年第8期44-45,共2页Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China

摘　　要：利用嫩江江桥站自1953年以来流量年极大值系列资料,采用均生函数逐步回归建立水文长期预测模型,并采用模型进行试报和检验。结果分析表明,均生函数逐步回归预测模型具有较好的历史拟合及预测效果,其结果具有一定的可信度。Based on the annual maximum discharge data series of Jiangqiao station of Nen river since 1953,the paper builds the long-term hydrological forecasting model by stepwise regression using mean generating function,carries out test and inspection by the model.The results show the model has a good history match and forecast results and the results have some credibility.

关 键 词：均生函数 逐步回归 模型 水文长期预报 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]