煤矿安全事故的一种预测方法  

A predicted method for coal mine accidents

作　　者：叶万军[1] 杨更社[1] 王罗惠[2] 刘慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学能源学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安科技大学计算机科学与技术学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2010年第4期219-222,共4页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40802068);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2007E209)

摘　　要：对某煤矿的安全事故资料进行了分析,运用灰色理论,建立了煤矿安全监控的GM(2,1)模型,其中,采用拉格朗日插值函数将非等时距时间序列转变为等时距序列。引入高阶弱化算子,对原始数据进行弱化。计算出系统发展系数和驱动系数,得出估计模型。再根据检验结果,进行残差修正,直至达到要求为止。最后采用非等时距GM(2,1)模型对某煤矿2008-2010年每年出现的安全事故进行预测后发现,2008-2010年间该煤矿每年可能出现380～401次安全事故,因而有关部门必须及时加强安全教育,强化安全管理,才能防患于未然。GM （2,1） model of safety inspect and forecast for coal mines was set up based on gray theory after the accident information was analyzed in detail, Anisochronous series was changed to isochronous series with Lagrang- ian function. Higher order weakening operator was introduced to weak the original data. The estimation model was set up after calculating the systematic development coefficient and driving coefficient. But the results need to be tested and the residual need to be amended until they agree with the requirement. This model is used for coal mine accident recorded from 2008 to 2010, and the results show that from 2008 to 2010, 380 -401 accidents will occur, so it is necessary to strengthen safety education and safety management in order to reduce and avoid the accident.

关 键 词：煤矿 安全事故 预测 GM(2 1)模型 

分 类 号：TD7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]