产出缺口误差下泰勒规则与宏观经济调控——基于2000-2008年我国宏观经济数据的实证检验  

Taylor Rule and Macroeconomic Control with Measurement Error of Output Gap:An Empirical Test of China's Macroeconomic Data during 2000-2008

作　　者：孟彩云[1] 王聪[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学金融系,广东广州510623

出　　处：《当代财经》2010年第8期46-52,共7页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：本文基于2000-2008年我国宏观季度经济数据,研究产出缺口误差下泰勒规则对我国制定货币政策调控宏观经济的适用性。实证研究结果表明,确定性条件下,泰勒规则可较好刻画我国银行间同业拆借利率,可以为我国宏观经济调控方向提供参照;产出缺口误差下,依据泰勒规则制定的目标利率,不仅不能起到抑制经济过热或刺激经济的作用,反而存在导致经济形势更加恶化的可能性。为降低产出缺口误差的负面影响,央行可采取保守性货币政策,在制定目标利率时,重点关注通货膨胀缺口。Based on China’s quarterly macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the applicability of Taylor rule to the monetary policy formulation in China to regulate the macro economy with the measurement error of output gap.The results show that under conditions of certainty,Taylor rule can well depict China’s interbank offered rate,therefore it can provide references for China’s regulation of macro economy;under the existence of measurement error of output gap,the target interest rate set according to Taylor rule can not fulfill the purposes of curbing the overheating economic growth or stipulating economic growth,on the contrary,it has the possibility of worsening the economy situation;in order to reduce the negative effects of measurement error of output gap,the central bank can adopt conservative monetary policy and focus on the inflation gap when setting the target interest rate.

关 键 词：泰勒规则 潜在GDP 产出缺口误差 宏观经济 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]