基于不确定性优化模型的北京市能源系统规划研究  

Study on Energy System Planning of Beijing Based on Uncertainty Optimization Model

作　　者：牛彦涛[1] 黄国和[1] 杨勇平[2] 张晓萱[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源与环境研究中心,北京102206 [2]华北电力大学能源与动力工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2010年第7期1012-1018,共7页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2005CB724201)

摘　　要：指出以区间不确定性优化方法改进能源系统模型,利于根据今后的信息及对风险的考虑对能源系统的发展做出决策,并将其应用于北京能源系统的研究。介绍了基于不确定性规划的北京市能源系统模型。对能源供应、能源加工转换技术、既有建筑节能改造、污染物排放等进行计算及分析,并进行了总结。Energy system model was improved by interval uncertainty optimization model and was applied in Beijing.It was beneficial to make decision for energy system development considering future information and risk analysis.The planning results showed that： to meet the demand for energy consumption in Beijing,average annual growth rate of energy supply would be 1.82%～2.22% in the planning period;crude oil input quantity would be stable,while crude coal,product oil,natural gas and input power moving in from other province would rise year by year in the planning period,and the ratio of coal in energy supply would decrease;gas-steam combined cycle cogeneration and coal-fired CHP would be the main direction of power development in the future,as well as the new energy and renewable energy such as hydropower,wind power,biomass power and waste incinerating power would be developed;heat pump,terrestrial heat,gas-steam combined cycle cogeneration and coal-fired CHP would make a major contribution on heating development;building energy saving reform would be a necessary measure for optimized development of energy system;NOx emission from power and thermal industries would increase,then it would be necessary to take positive measures in the two fields and others to prompt NOx emission reduction.

关 键 词：能源系统模型 不确定性 优化方法 北京 

分 类 号：TK-9[动力工程及工程热物理] F206[经济管理—国民经济]