流行病在空间分布人群中的传播模型  

Epidemic Spreading in Spatially Distributed Populations

作　　者：张玉[1] 李亦芳[1] 尹腾飞 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院数学与信息科学学院,河南郑州450011 [2]三一德国有限公司德国研究院液压控制所,湖南长沙410100

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2010年第8期65-68,共4页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：研究流行病传播规律,考虑了流行病在空间分布人群中的随机传播过程。目前,人们通常应用复杂网络来模拟人群中的流行病传播过程,但是,复杂网络模型中没有空间、距离等概念,在现实中,人群通常是空间分布,即空间关系是流行病传播的重要影响因素。针对上述问题,提出一种流行病传播的新模型,使人群分布在一个有界区域内,并创新性地引入了距离的概念,改善了复杂网络模型忽视空间因素的缺陷。利用模型建构,通过编写Matlab程序对整个传播过程进行仿真,分析了个体针对病毒所产生的暂时性免疫力对流行病传播过程的影响。表明仿真结果与实际现象吻合。结果证明将空间因素纳入模型更为合理。In this paper,a novel model is presented to study the effects of epidemic spreading in spatially distributed populations.Recently,complex network models for epidemics have been widely studied.As we know,complex network models focuses on the interconnection structure between different individuals and neglected the spatial relation.However,the spatial relation is sometimes a significant role in the epidemic spreading.Based on this observation,we propose a simplified model in this paper to analyze the epidemic spreading in a spatially distributed population.A relationship between individual immunity effect and epidemic spreading is also investigated.And the results are consistent with the commonsense.The numerical simulation proves the rationality of the space-included model compared with the complex network models.

关 键 词：流行病传播 扩散 免疫作用 随机网络 数值仿真 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]