应用蒙特卡罗方法模拟核电厂丧失设备冷却水系统始发事件的频率  

Application of MC Method to Simulate Initiating Event Frequency of Loss of Equipment Cooling Water System in Nuclear Power Plants

作　　者：玉宇[1] 童节娟[1] 赵军[1] 刘涛[1] 张阿玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《核动力工程》2010年第4期57-60,共4页Nuclear Power Engineering

基　　金：国家重大科技专项经费资助项目(ZX06902)

摘　　要：采用蒙特卡罗(MC)模拟方法,针对高温气冷堆丧失设备冷却水系统始发事件频率进行分析计算,得到该始发事件频率为2.7×10^(-3)(堆·年)^(-1),主要贡献因素为设备冷却水系统循环泵/厂用水系统泵共因需求失效。传统故障树计算结果为3.8×10^(-1)(堆·年)^(-1)主要贡献因素为设备冷却水系统循环泵/厂用水系统泵独立运行失效。该计算结果与美国核管理委员会(NRC)的NUREG/CR-5750报告中的统计结果9.7×10^(-4)(堆·年)^(-1)更为接近。经分析,其原因是始发事件考虑的任务时间为1堆·年,冗余设备的交替运行以及故障设备的修复等因素对分析结果具有重要影响;故障树分析中由于缺乏时间因素,对于此类与时序有关的问题,其分析假设过于保守;MC模拟则是一种动态的计算方法,可以充分描述系统运行的动态过程,所得结果与实际核电厂运行的统计值更为接近。Monte Carlo simulation is used in this paper to analyze the initiating event of loss of equipment cooling water system, the frequency of 2.7×10^-3（reactor.year）^-1 is obtained, and the main contributor is the common cause demand failure of equipment cooling water system pumps and service water system pumps. The traditional fault tree result is 3.8×10^-3（reactor.year）^-1/（the main contributor is independent operation failure of equipment cooling water system pumps/service water system pumps）. This result is more closer to the statistic value 9.7×10^-4//（reactor.year）＂t in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission （NRC） report NUREG/CR-5750. The reason is that the mission time of the system in initiating event analysis is 1 reactor.year, so the redundant devices and the repair of the fault devices are important factors for the result. And for this type of problem related to the time order, the assumption is too conservative because of lack of time factor in the fault tree, while MC simulation is a dynamic method, and the system behavior can be described adequately, so the result is more closer to the statistic value of the nuclear power plant.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗模拟 故障树 始发事件 

分 类 号：TL[核科学技术]